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Axonics, Inc. (AXNX)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2023 net revenue rose 27.7% YoY to $109.7M with gross margin at 75.4% (vs. 73.3% LY) and diluted EPS of $0.13; Adjusted EBITDA was $18.9M as operating leverage improved .
  • Segment strength: SNM revenues grew to $88.5M (+26% YoY) and Bulkamid to $21.2M (+36% YoY), with U.S. demand the primary driver in both categories .
  • Management-referenced sell-side consensus for Q4 revenue was ~$105M on the Q3 call; actual $109.7M implies a ~4% beat (S&P Global estimates not retrievable via tool) .
  • FY23 finished at $366.4M revenue (+34% YoY) and $52.3M adjusted EBITDA; no 2024 guidance provided given the pending acquisition by Boston Scientific for $71/share cash (~$3.7B equity value), a key stock catalyst .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong top-line growth and mix: Q4 revenue +28% YoY to $109.7M; SNM $88.5M (+26%) and Bulkamid $21.2M (+36%) with strength led by U.S. volumes .
  • Margin expansion: Q4 gross margin improved to 75.4% (vs. 73.3% LY), near the high end of the 74–75% Q4 range telegraphed on the Q3 call; drivers cited previously include higher manufacturing yields and supply chain execution .
  • Profitability inflection: Q4 adjusted EBITDA $18.9M (vs. $10.1M LY), FY23 adjusted EBITDA $52.3M; management: “Revenue grew 34% in 2023, gross margin expanded to nearly 75% and Axonics generated over $50 million of adjusted EBITDA.” (CEO) .

Selected management quote:

  • “The continued strong performance of Axonics reflects the physician community’s preference and enthusiasm for our incontinence products.” (CEO) .

What Went Wrong

  • OpEx step-up: Q4 operating expenses rose to $81.7M (vs. $66.6M LY), including $3.5M in acquisition-related costs; sales & marketing spend also increased YoY .
  • Limited international contribution: International SNM revenue remained modest at $1.9M in Q4 (vs. $86.6M U.S.), consistent with earlier commentary that reimbursement and regulatory timing temper OUS scaling .
  • No forward (2024) guidance: With the pending Boston Scientific deal, management did not issue 2024 guidance in Q4 materials; investors lack near-term standalone outlook .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2022Q3 2023Q4 2023
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$85.918 $93.100 $109.735
Diluted EPS ($)$0.01 $0.08 $0.13
Gross Margin (%)73.3% 74.2% 75.4%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$66.576 $69.791 $81.694
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$10.142 $14.037 $18.936
Net Income ($USD Millions)$0.665 $3.928 $6.574

Segment and Geography Breakdown (Revenue, $USD Millions)

Segment / GeographyQ4 2022Q3 2023Q4 2023
SNM – U.S.$69.068 $72.212 $86.576
SNM – International$1.236 $1.737 $1.934
SNM – Total$70.304 $73.949 $88.510
Bulkamid – U.S.$12.341 $15.579 $17.038
Bulkamid – International$3.273 $3.572 $4.187
Bulkamid – Total$15.614 $19.151 $21.225
Total Net Revenue$85.918 $93.100 $109.735

Selected KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ4 2022Q4 2023
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$62.967 $82.760
Cash, Cash Equivalents, Short-term Investments & Restricted Cash ($USD Millions)N/A~$358
Shares Outstanding (Common, period-end)49,546,727 50,770,520

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA excludes interest/other income/expense, income taxes, D&A, stock-based comp, acquisition-related costs, acquired IPR&D, loss on disposal, and impairment, per non-GAAP policy .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total Revenue ($)FY 2023$358M (7/27/23) $362M (10/30/23) Raised
Q4 Gross Margin (%)Q4 202373–74% 2H guide referenced earlier; updated to 74–75% for Q4 (Q3 call) Actual 75.4% (reported 2/28/24) In-line/high end result
2024 OutlookFY 2024N/ANot provided due to pending acquisition N/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2023)Previous Mentions (Q3 2023)Current Period (Q4 2023)Trend
Gross Margin trajectoryGM 75.6% in Q2; drivers include higher yields, insourcing, supply chain discipline Guided Q4 GM to 74–75%; reiterated long-term opportunities above 75% Actual Q4 GM 75.4% Improving, near high end of range
Operating leverage / EBITDAQ2 adj. EBITDA $18.4M; profitability inflecting Q3 adj. EBITDA $14.0M; sixth straight positive adj. EBITDA quarter; OpEx cadence noted Q4 adj. EBITDA $18.9M Positive, sustained
DTC / Demand funnelNot detailed in Q2 release>10,000 qualified leads/month; campaign yields measurable ROI; expanding ads to SUI and bowel dysfunction Press release emphasizes broad clinical adoption; no Q4 call transcript availableOngoing awareness driver
International SNMNot highlightedF15 approval in EU/Australia expected to boost OUS; single-payer budgets limit near-term growth Q4 OUS SNM $1.9M vs U.S. $86.6M OUS remains modest; approvals key
Product pipelineRadian foramen finder mid‑2024; new external trial system planned (shower-safe) late 2024, pending FDA SameSame themes reiterated in broader materialsExecution underway
Strategic/CorporateManagement open to strategic interest; focus on continence adjacencies Agreed sale to Boston Scientific for $71/share cash Acquisition consummation anticipated

Management Commentary

  • “Revenue grew 34% in 2023, gross margin expanded to nearly 75% and Axonics generated over $50 million of adjusted EBITDA.” – Raymond W. Cohen, CEO .
  • “In 2023, clinicians used Axonics therapies to treat approximately 100,000 incontinence patients globally.” – CEO .
  • Non-GAAP policy: Adjusted EBITDA excludes interest/other items, taxes, D&A, stock comp, acquisition-related costs, acquired IPR&D, disposal/impairment; used for strategic and operating planning .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2023 earnings call transcript was found in our document set. Notable Q&A themes from the most recent call (Q3 2023) that informed Q4 trends:

  • Growth drivers: Half of U.S. SNM growth from higher utilization/share of wallet at existing accounts; half from competitive account wins; DTC helps but is “icing,” with long-cycle impact .
  • Margin outlook: Q4 GM guided to 74–75%, with longer-term path above 75% via yields, supply chain, and production optimization .
  • Mix dynamics: Recharge-free (F15) ~75% of implants vs ~25% rechargeable; physician guidance largely drives choice .
  • International: OUS growth contingent on F15 approvals; single-payer budgets constrain near-term growth .

Estimates Context

  • We were unable to retrieve S&P Global consensus estimates via the tool for AXNX (mapping unavailable).
  • Management referenced Q4 2023 revenue consensus of ~$105M on the Q3 call; actual Q4 revenue of $109.7M implies a ~4% beat (EPS consensus not cited by management and unavailable via S&P tool) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Durable growth with operating leverage: Q4 beat on revenue and strong GM (75.4%) underscore a model capable of profitable growth, aided by manufacturing efficiencies and scale .
  • Broad-based demand: SNM and Bulkamid both accelerated, with U.S. utilization and account penetration driving gains; DTC continues to expand the funnel for future periods .
  • Guidance and outlook: No 2024 guidance given the pending Boston Scientific acquisition, reducing near-term standalone forecast visibility .
  • Strategic overhang/catalyst: The $71/share cash deal with Boston Scientific is the principal near-term stock driver pending regulatory and shareholder approvals .
  • Watch margin execution: Q4 GM at the high end of prior range; further gains hinge on continued yield improvements and supply chain optimization .
  • International optionality: OUS remains a small base; F15 approvals could unlock incremental growth in 2024+ .
  • Cross-sell synergy: Bulkamid remains an effective wedge into higher-volume accounts and a differentiator vs. competitors, supporting sustained share gains in SNM over time .

All figures and statements are sourced from Axonics’ SEC filings and earnings materials as cited inline:

  • Q4 2023 8-K and press release with financials and segment details .
  • Preliminary Q4/FY23 revenue and acquisition announcement (Jan 8, 2024) .
  • Q3 2023 8-K and earnings call transcript for prior trends, guidance commentary, and management quotes -.